Independent analysis

A sober view of betting markets.

Short notes on odds, incentives, risk controls, and the mechanics behind the lines.

Educational commentary. No tips. No affiliate promotions.

Latest brief

Price is not probability. It is a negotiated signal shaped by limits, risk appetite, and information costs.

Next note coming soon

What this is

Betting markets are engineered systems. Odds are prices with built-in margin, shaped by risk controls and liquidity.

Much of the online conversation is promotional or designed to sell picks. MondoBetting is intentionally not that.

We publish occasionally, focusing on first principles: how lines are set, what limits signal, and why incentives matter.

Readers should expect compact, sourced commentary that favors clarity over volume.

Topics we cover

Odds & implied probability

How prices translate into implied outcomes and why they are not forecasts.

Margin, overround & expected value

Where the edge sits and how it accumulates across a market.

Limits, profiling & risk controls

How operators manage exposure and what different limits reveal.

Market makers vs traders vs bettors

The distinct roles, incentives, and feedback loops between participants.

In-play dynamics

Volatility, suspensions, and why live markets move differently.

Promotions and why they exist

Designed incentives, customer value, and churn economics.

Data feeds & latency

High-level look at how information timing affects pricing.

Responsible gambling & incentives

What guardrails mean in practice and how they are enforced.

Start here

What odds really represent

Coming soon

Why limits exist

Coming soon

The difference between price and probability

Coming soon

The house edge: where it hides

Coming soon

What “sharp” actually means

Coming soon

Newsletter

Short, occasional updates when new commentary is published.